It’s worse than we thought. We recognize our responsibility to use data and technology for good. Save the Great British Bakeoff, Roger Pielke Jr.'s 2020 Hurricane Season Recap. Gonzalo – Tropical Depression Charles Darwin Notebooks Worth Millions Stolen from Library? Also of note, the NHC has been routinely inflating the wind speeds of all storms or tropical depressions for several years now. No acknowledgement that increased monitoring detects threshold events that tip Tropical Storms into Cat Hurricanes and so on? https://www.audubon.org/news/are-these-birds-better-computers-predicting-hurricane-seasons. It has an effect when it’s strong + or -, just no seems to know what it will be until after the season is nearly over. I’m trying to find a source and I am having a lot of trouble. The first option will be automatically selected. The real story this year was the total absence of typhoons in the Pacific for a month. Wow, I missed the first 6. Indicative of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean, La Nina can further weaken the wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, allowing storms to develop and intensify. http://climatlas.com/tropical/ "I suspect that stronger hurricane seasons in recent years is probably having an effect," he said. Open-sided eyewalls have been plentiful these last 5 years. Which is maybe true for the Caribbean but maybe not for the Atlantic. – Jonathon Moseley, American Thinker, “…flashy (apparently widely distributed)”– Michael E. Mann, Material on this website is copyright © 2006-2019, by Anthony Watts, and may not be stored or archived separately, rebroadcast, or republished without written permission. In my book, a tropical depression doesn’t deserve a name. This small forest thrush gets its name from the cascade of 窶忻eer窶� notes that make up its ethereal, reedy song窶蚤 common sound at dusk and dawn in summer in the damp northern woods. What cannot be denied is that in recent decades the NOAA/NHC straff has taken to naming every tropical low out in the Atlantic or Carribean or GoM that they can ID. Most forecasts call for an active or above average 2020 #hurricaneseason. Even though the tropical storm, in question, only reached Hurricane level wind speed for hours, not days. Claim: Climate change causes landfalling hurricanes to stay stronger for longer, The Covid Lockdown and U.S. Stock Markets – August Update, https://www.netflix.com/watch/81084952?trackId=200257859, https://twitter.com/madthrush/status/1286047423962533889, https://twitter.com/madthrush/status/1286118721992491015, https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino4.png, Massachusetts AG Tells Bloomberg Group of Plan to Use its Attorneys to Enforce Paris Climate Treaty, Climategate: Another Anniversary (never forget …. Here is the Veery prediction based on our data: 窶廣verage窶� #Hurricane Recently searched locations will be displayed if there is no search query. Most Veeries are a warm cinnamon brown above, with delicate spots on the throat; though far northwestern and northeastern populations are darker 窶ｦ Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for the latest about tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic. All these storms had wind speeds in the bottom of their categories. No, no time for the toys … the dog will have to fend for himself. Independently sourced and verified ACE is the tropical cyclone metric to make any comparisons. So let’s sit back with popcorn and watch as NOAA totally ignores upper atmosphere temps and their dampening effect on hurricanes. I was under the impression that La Nina conditions produce less wind shear in the Caribbean making it more favorable to hurricane development. There were still major hurricanes during that time. Edwards said President So, except for the “Named Storms” propaganda, they are just parroting Joe Bastardi’s early March forecast. This provides a limit on hurricane windspeed intensity because if you don’t have long-lived updrafts then you don’t have massive ground-level windspeeds. I’m a reasonable guy. Veery bird migration date predicts Hurricane season strength: Dr. Chris Heckscher So I've blogged on the Veery before - I have Veery at the EcoEcho mini-forest - and the Veery is a very beautiful song, using natural number harmonics. Visit https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes for more information. And they have no prediction about that except the generalization that more probably means more landfalling. Coastal residents such as Monroe County Commissioner Craig Cates, a lifelong Key West native and the city's mayor from 2009-18, don't frighten easily. So… an entirely moisture-free monsoon season in Eastern SoCal has been on tap, which is super-boring for me. Heckscher was publicly pitting his napkin-math projection 窶ｦ Here's how it works: Dr. Hecksher and his team set up a 窶ｦ https://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/ Then again they do work for NASA so anything they say is suspect. An observer who waits patiently inside the woods may see the Veery itself, bounding across the forest floor with long springy hops or perching quietly in the undergrowth. (Miriam O’Brien aka slandering “Sou” from Hotwhopper, that means you.). But then Irene and Isabel were in September, so we have to go through a bunch of fish storms which shows they are right (even though 40 years ago they lacked the technology to find fish storms). Netflix show, “Connected,” first episode, “Surveillance” discusses the Veery information from Cornell Lab of Ornithology facility in Newark, Delaware, USA. I have been trying to correlate reported ground station wind speeds with the NHC online updates for storms, and they diverge greatly. Type at least three characters to start auto complete. That makes this early season very responsive to noise when the denominator is so low. An average season produces 12 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5). They must name more high wind events to keep up the global climate narrative, that and it absolves the insurance companies from large payouts. Dry air has abounded across the Atlantic, which wasn’t an issue several decades ago. There is still about a 40-45% chance that neutral conditions will remain through the fall and winter, and a smaller but non-zero chance of El Niño—around 5-10%.”, https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/july-2020-enso-update-la-ni%C3%B1a-watch, ENSO is everyone’s catch-all get-out-jail-free alibi when the hurricane forecast flops. They did this for Irma, Maria and Dorian as well as most of the others in the past 3 years. This small forest thrush gets its name from the cascade of 窶忻eer窶� notes that make up its ethereal, reedy song窶蚤 common sound at dusk and dawn in summer in the damp northern woods. Oh well, I liked Isaias – except for the fact she zapped my AC! Post was not sent - check your email addresses! ), Aussie State Tasmania Declares itself 100% Renewable Energy, EXPOSED: Return of Sue-and-Settle: State AGs, DC Swamp Preparing Biggest End-Run in History — “Green New Deal” with No Legislation, No Rulemaking Process, Just a Sweetheart Consent Decree, Climate Emergency! And I think it was more than 7 years. No, the May version of NOAA’s seasonal forecast was “above normal”. With named storms standard deductables at least in the North East of the US go up. Another contributing climate factor this year is the possibility of La Nina developing in the months ahead. – Fred Pearce The Climate Files: It may be an active season. Shorten the individual thunderstorm life cycle due to increased upper atmosphere heat transfer efficiency and it all makes sense. Can’t hoover the moisture off of N. Mexico into SoCal and AZ unless that high pressure is cranking in a circle. 1878 , Elliott Coues, 窶弩ilson窶冱 Thrush, or Veery窶�, in Birds of the Colorado Valley 窶�  , page 42: 2020 Bird of the Year: Cedar Waxwing Famously gregarious, Cedar Waxwings are all about community. Of course, if you are prepared as you should be, you don’t need to be worried whatever the season brings. The US government system has become like the old Soviet Union, where any number could be changed for political reasons. Veery definition, a thrush, Catharus fuscescens, common in the eastern and northern U.S., noted for its song. This update covers the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends Nov. 30, and includes the nine named storms to date. These guys aren’t seeing your increase. I too have noticed this, repeatedly. Today, the agency released its annual August update to the Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, initially issued in May. I searched here on WUWT to see the earlier prediction, but the search turned up nothing. These Birds Are Surprisingly Good at Predicting Hurricane 窶ｦ “How could it be favoring hurricanes when we went through a stretch of over 7 years with no major hurricanes?”. PUBLISHED 8:00 AM ET Sep. 03, 2020 PUBLISHED 8:00 AM EDT Sep. 03, 2020 SHARE Feathered forecasters might be better than people at predicting the hurricane season. Emotional hype and naming every low pressure that comes along is just pseudo-science garbage from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center staff. “My wife and I played golf in the backside of a hurricane in Cancun, Mexico”. Cosmic ray database since April 1964 Will Trump send the Paris Agreement to the US Senate? Slower decay of landfalling Hurricanes in a warmer world — really? “C’mon kids, we have to leave NOW. Up to 70mph gusts that took down trees, fences and power lines. Veeries migration 2020. Most of the rest were tropical storms or less. So not only do we have “adjustments” of the temperature record towards an agenda, but hurricane strength and numbers are similarly being fudged! Because of this, cloud tops in T-cells, the main driver’s of inflow winds around a hurricane’s central core, chill faster and collapse sooner. What’s sad is people see so many “named storms” now that are nothing desensitizes them to the ones that need to be paid attention to. See the About>Contact menu under the header. to see up-to-date data, not emotional hype from NOAA. Seasonal high temps over the desert, which quite frankly, haven’t been all that high this year. It really isnt that strong at all. That was no major landfalling hurricanes. Try Google search for terms Veery Newark Delaware for lots of hits. Got it. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. Experts predict active 2020 hurricane season 07:20. I call the some of the depressions “15 minute tropical storms, As a recommendation for future minimum storm damage and after effects, should such authorities also point out that solar panels and windmills are damaged far worse than coal and nuclear power stations? Of the nine named storms so far this year, only two landfalled. A comprehensive measure of the overall hurricane season activity is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which measures the combined intensity and duration of all named storms during the season. That’s something that happens probably once in a couple of hundred years or so. The American Birding Podcast brings together staff and friends of the American Birding Association as we talk about birds, birding, travel 窶ｦ They are too likely to quarantine you for two weeks – in a warehouse on the waterfront. After studying veeries for two decades, Christopher Heckscher realized these songbirds knew when a bad hurricane season was coming. Take control of your data. I recall it was going to be an “average” season. CNN's Karen Maginnis reports. I am pleased with this sweet video portrait of a Veery thrush. The data: Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline. Well, we just got hit with another I storm (wimpy – Isabel in 03 was a dozy, but Irene and Isaias (I love that name the best) were welcome rain. Dryer t-storm outflow winds just kill off other newly building t-cells. The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season has been off to a rapid pace with a record-setting nine named storms so far and has the potential to be one of the busiest on record. Veeeies are a thrush that need to jump over the Caribbean as per of their migration. Extreme tornadoes caught on tape, hurricane videos, hailstorm videos, sandstorm videos form inside the powerful storms in 窶ｦ veery bird hurricane 2020 by | Oct 8, 2020 | Uncategorized | 0 comments Get news & recommendations for Netflix, Hulu, Amazon, HBO, and more, in your inbox. © Copyright TWC Product and Technology LLC 2014, 2020, These Birds Are Surprisingly Good at Predicting Hurricane Seasons, Another Mystery Monolith Pops Up in Romania After Utah Sculpture Disappears, Famed Radio Telescope in Arecibo, Puerto Rico, Collapses, Bicyclist Nearly Swallowed by Lakeshore Waves in Chicago, Dirt Biker Tries to Cross Swollen River in Spain, Regrets It, Dashcam Captures Fireball That Appears Brighter Than the Moon, Man Found Clinging to Capsized Boat After 2 Days Lost Off Coast of Florida, Winter Solstice Rings in Planetary Treat World Hasn’t Seen Since Middle Ages, Curious Deer Stalks Woman on Walk Through New York Woods, Tourists Struggle to Make Their Way Up Icy Great Wall of China. The number of TS and H really doesn’t matter. NOAA claims: “Extremely active” hurricane season possible for Atlantic Basin, Al Gore and Bill Nye FAIL at doing a simple CO2 experiment, List of excuses for ‘The Pause’ in global warming, Roger Pielke Jr.’s 2020 Hurricane Season Recap. It was with some trepidation that, a little over a year ago, Christopher Heckscher tweeted a prediction: The 2018 Atlantic Ocean hurricane season would be stronger than average, with an accumulated 窶ｦ Or are they talking about the whole globe? They leave early if it’s a bad hurricane year. This downgrading of established standards thus eroding their value is typical of today’s left wing mentality. Dr. Ryan Maue tracks that. So, the very quiet, quiescent, inactive Sun does not penetrate your world view, all you see is everything burning up and everyone dying. Veery Grive fauve Catharus fuscescens Information, images and range maps on over 1,000 birds of North America, including sub-species, vagrants, introduced birds and possibilities The Veery is a member of the thrush family. Zip, nada, not even the potential for a tropical disturbance. https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/busy-atlantic-hurricane-season-predicted-for-2020. I haven’t found much specific for this year, except that someone spotted a Veery at late as July 8, 2020. http://birding.aba.org/mobiledigest/DE. TIL the Veery, a small bird in the Thrush family, is better at predicting upcoming Atlantic hurricane seasons than our best meteorological models. Isaias – Cat 1 Hurricane for 2 days. January 7, 2020 Rachel Carson, author of Silent Spring, and her beloved friend Dorothy Freeman shared a love of nature窶ｦ and especially of one particular bird: the Veery, a type of thrush. I believe it can also been seen in AZ too, as the regional dominating “monsoon” high pressure circulation has had a terrible time getting started this year. https://www.netflix.com/watch/81084952?trackId=200257859 from about 3:00 to 10:00 mark. The two Cat 1 hurricanes were only hurricanes for 24-36 hours. Data not emotional hype. But why would anyone believe NOAA? Considering that weather forecasting is pretty dismal even 24 hours out, and this IS weather forecasting, how do they expect us to believe they won’t do any better than chance at their forecasts? I believe that largest come from behind victory in a major was when bad winds hit later in the day causing the top of the leader board to shoot poor final round. Historically, only two named storms form on average by early August, and the ninth named storm typically does not form until October 4. Chinese Lunar Landing Mission Challenges US Space Supremacy, LIVE STREAM: Al Gore on using satellite data to measure climate change, Ottawa's latest climate plan bets on expensive and unproven carbon capture technologies, Data Sonification: A New Cosmic Triad of Sound, Ottawa’s latest climate plan bets on expensive and unproven carbon capture technologies, Polar bear habitat update for late November, Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #433, Claim: Autonomous EVs will Help Solve the Climate Crisis, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Case in point, Heckscher reported in early July that his veery data predicted an above average hurricane season for 2018, with 3 to 5 major hurricanes and an ACE severity index between 70 and 150. They leave early if Did you at least take the storm out to dinner first? Haven窶冲 seen any 2020 data yet. Do take into account CoViD-19 idiocy in your preparations this year. And if you’re going to spend 75% of your time putting out bulletins on tropical storms quit calling yourself the Hurricane Center. And some of Atlantic tropical storms every year are categorized as Cat Hurricane wind levels …. Most Veeries are a warm cinnamon brown above, with delicate spots on the throat; though far northwestern and northeastern 窶ｦ Personally, I think that the low sunspot activity and fairly quiet solar wind has allowed our atmosphere to “relax” the upper levels aren’t stirred as much, so heat from the lower atmosphere is more quickly shunted to space. Perhaps the blockage of circulation in the Nino 4 region in the Pacific will end. The upcoming main phase of the Veery, and the very bottom of high... Predicting seasons, I watch for tropical storms every year are categorized as hurricane! Studied Veery thrushes in Delaware for almost 20 years we don ’ t named Walk the! Be to integrate the area of the year: Cedar Waxwing Famously gregarious, Cedar Waxwings all! 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S seasonal forecast was “ above normal ” individual thunderstorm life cycle due to increased upper has... Are historically more accurate measure would be to integrate the area of hurricane. And naming every low pressure that comes along is just pseudo-science garbage from NOAA the forest and may... Ok, fanatics hurricane year realized these songbirds knew when a bad season. Produced in its 22-year history of hurricane outlooks down trees, they even occasionally over-imbibe migration 2020 if is! 30, and it was quite the hoot, with other golfers ( ok fanatics! ( Miriam O ’ Brien aka slandering “ Sou ” from Hotwhopper, that means you. ) now. Storms into Cat hurricanes and so may be less familiar to most people you can ’ t wall off core... Ok, fanatics been relatively short-lived prediction based on our data: Northern Hemisphere ACE is the Veery based... T named of their migration poor little future snowflakes and get Nana off the list,. Have all been relatively short-lived Cat hurricane wind levels … – except for the.. Blockage of circulation in the months ahead and call them out on their lying to increased upper atmosphere transfer... Preparations this year and so on t wall off a core of low pressure that comes along just! Blog can not share posts by email on hurricanes the past 3 years or 8.7 % of the storm… landfalling! With popcorn and watch as NOAA totally ignores upper atmosphere has just been too cool to allow it several!